Analysts nailed the Tesla stock crash — almost to the dollar. And their calls now on the S&P 500 show what they think is coming next.
XShares of Tesla (TSLA) have cratered more than 15% this year to 597.95 a share. That's almost spot-on to the 600 a share analysts predicted the electric car maker's stock would be worth — in 12 months, says an Investor's Business Daily analysis of data from S&P Global Market Intelligence and MarketSmith.
And if analysts called Tesla so well, what are they saying not only about the future of Tesla, but also the other S&P 500 stocks? Turns out they still see big gains in some S&P 500 stocks — just not Tesla.
Analysts See Lots Of S&P 500 Upside, Just Not With Tesla
The S&P 500 has been skidding a few weeks, especially in the tech sector. But analysts are still bullish on most stocks in the index.
The S&P 500 is down 2.4% from its high notched on Feb. 12. And the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) is off 7% in that time, the second-worst showing of the 11 S&P 500 sectors. The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) is the only sector to do worse than technology. And that's due to Tesla dropping more than 26% from the February high.
But analysts still see opportunity. Analysts think 297 stocks in the S&P 500 will rise more than 5% over the next 12 months. And analysts are calling for more than 30% gains in 13 S&P 500 stocks.
Tesla, though, isn't one of them. What then is the opinion on Tesla from here?
Analysts think the stock has less than 1% upside in 12 months even after the drop. The 12-month price target on Tesla is 600.14, not far from the 597.95 it closed at on Friday.
To be sure, disagreement is rampant. The most bullish analyst on Tesla has a 12-month price target of 1,200. But the most bearish thinks the stock is worth just 135. Analysts, on average, rate Tesla stock a hold. IBD Live viewers, though, learned to get cautious even sooner than the analysts on Jan. 8.
Investors may get some answers in April. Tesla is expected to earn 74 cents a share in the first quarter, up more than 220% from a year ago.
Where Analysts See The Most S&P 500 Upside
So if Tesla isn't the S&P 500 stock analysts are most bullish on, what is?
Analysts think information technology stock Enphase Energy (ENPH) will be worth 227.13 a share in 12 months. If they're right, that would be 58% implied upside. The solar-power equipment company is called an "outperform" by analysts. And the stock is down 18% this year to 143.55 a share.
Not all implied upside, though, is in S&P 500 stocks down so much this year. Analysts see promise in a number of S&P 500 health care stocks. Specifically, analysts think Centene (CNC) will be 34% more in 12 months than it is now, to 81.38 a share. The company offers health care services to underinsured people in the U.S. The stock is up 0.8% this year to 60.53.
So, analysts may not see much upside in Tesla stock now. But there's still plenty of opportunity if you ask the analysts.
S&P 500 Stocks Analysts Like Most Now
| Company | Symbol | Stock YTD % Ch. | Implied Upside To Analyst Target* | Friday Close | Composite Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enphase Energy | (ENPH) | -18.2% | 58.2% | 143.55 | Information Technology | 81 |
| Viatris | (VTRS) | -25.8% | 41.2% | 13.91 | Health Care | 9 |
| IPG Photonics | (IPGP) | -7.8% | 37.9% | 206.50 | Information Technology | 45 |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | (REGN) | -4.5% | 37.7% | 635.67 | Health Care | 66 |
| Equinix | (EQIX) | -14.5% | 36.5% | 833.08 | Real Estate | 21 |
| Synopsys | (SNPS) | -12.1% | 35.1% | 227.80 | Information Technology | 64 |
| Amazon.com | (AMZN) | -7.9% | 34.9% | 3000.46 | Consumer Discretionary | 78 |
| Centene | (CNC) | 0.8% | 34.4% | 60.52 | Health Care | 54 |
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals | (VRTX) | -10.3% | 33.9% | 211.98 | Health Care | 57 |
| Tesla** | (TSLA) | -15.3% | 0.4% | 597.95 | Consumer Discretionary | 38 |
Sources: IBD, S&P Global Market Intelligence, * — based on 12-month price target, ** - shown for comparison
Follow Matt Krantz on Twitter @mattkrantz
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March 08, 2021 at 08:00PM
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Analysts Called The Tesla Stock Crash: Here's What They Say Now - Investor's Business Daily
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