Hurricane Sally now a Category 2; forecast track shifts east again into Alabama - AL.com

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It’s Hurricane Sally now, and it’s gotten a lot stronger.

The National Hurricane Center said Sally was a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds as of Monday night. Sally started the day as a 65 mph tropical storm.

And Sally could get stronger, forecasters said, adding that Sally could approach Category 3 intensity (111 mph winds and higher) before hitting the Gulf Coast.

Sally’s center has also continued to shift and so has its forecast track, and a hurricane warning is in effect for the Alabama coast. Hurricane conditions will be possible there by late Tuesday.

The latest forecast track from the hurricane center shows Sally moving slowly toward the coast and then turning more to the northeast near the time of landfall. The big question is when exactly will that turn happen.

As of late Monday the forecast track showed the center moving onshore very close to the Alabama-Mississippi state line by late Tuesday or early Wednesday morning, which would put southwest Alabama in line for some of the roughest weather that Sally had to offer.

Sally’s forecast path was causing considerable headaches for forecasters late Monday. “There continues to be a significant amount of uncertainty on exactly where and when Sally turns northward and makes landfall, with model solutions ranging from a landfall on the Florida panhandle to a landfall in extreme southeastern Louisiana,” forecasters said.

“It should be emphasized that it is always challenging to forecast the track of hurricanes in weak steering currents, and in Sally’s case the weak steering is occurring very near land.”

The hurricane center said the average forecast error at 36 hours from landfall is 60 miles, and some of Sally’s worst weather will occur far from its center.

Rain bands from the storm were moving onshore in Florida as of late Monday.

As of 10 p.m. CDT Monday, Hurricane Sally was located 130 miles southeast of Biloxi, Miss., and was crawling to the west-northwest at only 3 mph.

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Sally could bring damaging winds, storm surge and coastal flooding and heavy rain along with it.

The hurricane center issued a storm surge warning for Alabama’s coast and Mobile Bay late Sunday and increased the possible amount of surge that will be possible. Areas from Ocean Springs, Miss., to Dauphin Island and Mobile Bay could see 6 to 9 feet of surge. Areas from Dauphin Island to the Florida state line could see 4 to 7 feet (it was 2 to 4 feet).

Sally is forecast to move inland and turn to the northeast, crossing over Alabama on Wednesday and Thursday as a tropical storm or depression.

Forecasters are more and more concerned about the potential for what they called “dangerous and potential historic” inland flooding from Sally.

Eight to 16 inches of rain will be possible closer to the coast, with isolated areas getting up to 2 feet of rain.

The rest of Alabama could see up to 10 inches of rain from Sally as well, and flash flood watches have been issued as far inland as central Alabama.

Southwest Alabama is in line to receive the most rain from Sally, but parts of central Alabama could get up to 10 inches as well. Here's the latest forecast from the National Weather Service.

Here’s a look at what to expect by region from Sally:

SOUTH ALABAMA

The National Weather Service is warning of potentially "historic" flooding from Sally.

Alabama’s coastal areas and southwest Alabama are in line to receive some of Sally’s worst weather, and a hurricane watch was upgraded to a hurricane warning earlier Monday.

The hurricane center said hurricane conditions could to begin in the hurricane warning area by late Tuesday.

Coastal areas continue to be under a storm surge warning.

Storm surge forecasts continue to increase as of Monday. Now 6 to 9 feet of surge will be possible on Dauphin Island and Mobile Bay and 4 to 7 feet will be possible from Dauphin Island eastward to the Florida state line:

Forecasters keep increasing the amount of storm surge that will be possible for Alabama.

Water is already rising along the coast as of Monday:

The National Weather Service in Mobile is warning that there is the potential for “historic” flooding in southwest Alabama as Sally approaches the Gulf Coast and slows down.

“We are looking at a dangerous, potentially historic flooding rainfall event,” forecasters said Monday.

Ten to 20 inches of rain will be possible for parts of southwest Alabama, primarily along and southwest of a line from Toxey to Navarre Beach, Fla., forecasters said. Isolated areas could get up to 25 inches.

A flash flood watch will be in effect through early Thursday morning for southwest and south-central Alabama. The weather service said the heaviest rain and greatest flooding potential will come on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Storm surge, damaging winds up to hurricane force (74 mph or higher) and tornadoes will also be possible over the next several days.

“It is extremely important to stay vigilant and have an action plan in place as short term adjustments to track and intensity can still occur,” the weather service said.

Forecasters expect the weather in south Alabama to really go downhill on Tuesday and rain, high surf and dangerous rip currents will all be present through the middle of the week.

CENTRAL ALABAMA

Sally will make its presence felt the most for central Alabama on Tuesday through Thursday as the weakening storm, likely a tropical depression by that point, crosses the state from west to east.

The National Weather Service in Birmingham is also concerned about flooding across central Alabama.

“A more significant flash flooding event is looking more probable for portions of Central (Alabama),” forecasters said Monday.

A flash flood watch will be in effect from 1 a.m. Wednesday through 7 a.m Thursday. It’s been expanded to include more of central Alabama.

Areas between Interstates 20 and 85 are in line right now to get the heaviest rain, which could range from 4 to 9 inches through Thursday, which is a decrease from earlier today.

The rest of the region could expect to see 3 to 6 inches of rain through Thursday with locally higher amounts.

The weather service said tornadoes will also be possible as Sally passes through, most likely in southern and southeastern parts of the region, though that may change depending on the environment and Sally’s track.

Gusty winds of 30-40 mph will also be possible on Wednesday and Thursday, the weather service said.

The wind combined with the heavy rain could also bring down trees and knock out power.

Sally is expected to move out of the region by Friday, and drier and cooler weather is expected this weekend.

NORTH ALABAMA

North Alabama will be on the receiving end of heavy rain from Sally as it tracks across the state on Wednesday and Thursday, likely as a tropical depression.

The track has been shifted southward today, which will lessen some of the effects for north Alabama if it holds, forecasters said.

The National Weather Service in Huntsville said 1 to 4 inches of rain will be possible from Wednesday through early Friday from Sally, with isolated areas possibly getting more.

That much rain could cause flash flooding.

If the current track forecast holds it would put the higher threat for tornadoes south of the region according to forecasters.

Gusty winds will also be possible at times with tropical showers moving through.

The rain and winds could combine to bring down a few trees and power lines through Friday, forecasters said.

The rain is forecast to move out on Friday, setting the stage for what could be a really nice weekend with cooler and drier weather and a taste of fall, the weather service said.

BUSY ELSEWHERE

Sally is of the most concern to the U.S., but the tropical Atlantic is nearly full as of Monday, with a historic five storms: Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy and now Vicky:

In addition to Sally forecasters are tracking Hurricane Paulette, Tropical Storms Teddy and Vicky, Tropical Depression Rene, and two other tropical waves.

Paulette made landfall in Bermuda overnight but was moving away on Monday. None of the other systems is expected to affect land in the next few days.

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Hurricane Sally now a Category 2; forecast track shifts east again into Alabama - AL.com
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