Giannis Antetokounmpo contract: What's next for Raptors, Heat, Mavs now that the MVP won't hit free agency - CBS Sports

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Giannis Antetokounmpo couldn't have reached free agency until 2021, but his shadow was the single-most powerful force of the 2020 offseason. The Miami Heat refused to sign free agents to contracts longer than one season expecting to pursue Antetokounmpo next summer. The Toronto Raptors made the same choice, and it may have cost them Serge Ibaka. The Dallas Mavericks offloaded Seth Curry and Delon Wright in deals motivated at least in part by cap preservation. That's three contenders willing to hit pause on their championship pursuits just for the chance to maybe meet with the back-to-back MVP. 

That chance just evaporated. Giannis announced he's re-signing with the Bucks on a five-year supermax deal worth a reported $228.2 million that solidified Milwaukee's future, but complicated everyone else's. The chase that Dallas, Miami and Toronto have spent the past year building toward has now ended prematurely.

Still, the preparations they've made don't have to go to waste. The glass half-empty crowd sees three teams that won't be adding Giannis Antetokounmpo next summer. The glass half-full crowd sees three very good teams with the flexibility to get a good deal better, even if that doesn't mean adding the MVP. 

So let's look at the tables these teams have set for the summer of 2021. How much cap space can they create? Who might they pursue instead of Giannis? And how quickly might they pivot into a different plan? 

Toronto Raptors

Pascal Siakam*	$33,003,936
Fred VanVleet	$19,675,926
OG Anunoby**	$11,616,645
Norman Powell***	$11,615,328
Malachi Flynn	$2,048,040
Incomplete roster charges (7)	$6,476,806
Total	$84,436,681
Projected cap space	$27,977,519

*estimate
**cap hold
***player option

The Raptors have the most immediate spending power of the trio. They are a Powell trade away from the seven-to-nine-year max with their three long-term cornerstones still in place. The tradeoff for that flexibility is desperation. The Heat and Mavericks would have both loved Giannis, but neither needed him. Miami can fall back on Jimmy Butler. Dallas has Luka Doncic. The Raptors don't have a superstar. That much was made apparent in their second-round loss to the Boston Celtics. Giannis was their best chance to get one. Now they have to consider their alternatives. 

That might mean more aggression on the trade market. Toronto hasn't been linked to James Harden yet, but could build a compelling package around Siakam. Bradley Beal isn't available yet, but should that change, Siakam would get the Raptors to the front of the line with Washington as well. Most teams lack the gumption to trade a 26-year-old Second-Team All-NBA selection. The Raptors aren't most teams. Masai Ujiri dealt a franchise icon in DeMar DeRozan to land Kawhi Leonard. That won Toronto its first championship. 

Speaking of Leonard, we have to address the elephant in the room here. Giannis wasn't even going to be the best free agent on the 2021 market. That honor belongs to Kawhi. The overwhelming assumption has been that Leonard would remain with the Clippers, but it's worth noting that while Paul George signed a contract extension earlier this offseason, Kawhi hasn't. His team is coming off a devastating postseason loss that included locker room strife and a coaching change. If he was absolutely set on a future with the Clippers, that probably would have been reported somewhere by now. As slim as the odds might appear, the Raptors could fairly easily pivot into a Kawhi homecoming next offseason if he proves interested. It would be slightly more expensive, but doable financially.

That isn't to say that there aren't slightly more plausible star-level options. The Raptors just lost Ibaka and Marc Gasol, for instance. Rudy Gobert is eligible for a supermax extension he almost certainly won't receive from the Jazz. If Toronto is willing to move off its "everybody shoots" approach to basketball, Gobert could fill its hole at center. That money could just as easily be split among multiple free agents. It's not as glamorous, but replacing Gasol with Andre Drummond and Kyle Lowry with Spencer Dinwiddie would at least align the entire starting lineup's timeline. 

If the cap space approach is one the Raptors plan to take, though, it is one they'd probably need to commit to right now, because they also have to decide whether or not they plan to extend OG Anunoby now, or make him wait until 2021. The latter is the dangerous approach. It not only risks angering a valuable young player, but likely increases Anunoby's price significantly. At this moment, the Raptors are the only team negotiating with him. In restricted free agency, 29 other teams will have that right, and if he continues to improve at the rate that he has, his market value is only going to skyrocket. 

As counterintuitive as this sounds, though, a more expensive long-term deal might help the Raptors save a meaningful chunk of cap space next summer. If Anunoby extends now, his cap figure next offseason would be his new, presumably higher salary. If he doesn't, that cap figure is a smaller, predetermined amount based on his draft position. For a more detailed explanation of this phenomenon, check out our explainer on the very similar Bam Adebayo extension dilemma. In the simplest of terms, the Raptors will make Anunoby wait if they plan to try to sign a star free agent outright. They will extend him now if they don't. 

That would be the safest plan here. The Raptors don't have to function as a cap space team. If they aren't satisfied with what is available, they could just as easily retain the cap holds to all of their own free agents and just bring the band back together. Aron Baynes, Chris Boucher and a number of younger players have non-guaranteed deals. Lowry will be a free agent, and the Raptors would like him to retire in Toronto. They'd still have a mid-level exception to spend on an external addition. This approach wouldn't solve the underlying flaws that knocked the Raptors out of the playoffs, but it would maximize Toronto's asset base if a superstar isn't available. There's something to be said for having talented players. Tradable salary has value. For a variety of reasons, the summer of 2021 is the easiest point for the Raptors to build their next championship contender. That doesn't mean it's the only possible point. Expect the Raptors to seek out every possible avenue for a star-caliber addition, but if none exist, they will be patient. 

Miami Heat

Jimmy Butler	$36,016,200
Bam Adebayo*	$28,103,550
Duncan Robinson**	$4,736,102
Kendrick Nunn**	$4,736,102
Tyler Herro***	$4,004,280
Precious Achiuwa	$2,711,280
KZ Okpala	$1,782,621
Dead cap	$5,214,584
Incomplete roster charges (5)	$4,626,290
Total	$91,931,009
Projected cap space	$20,483,191

*estimate
**cap hold
***player option

The Heat faced the same conundrum with Adebayo that the Raptors are currently weighing with Anunoby. They chose to extend him, and that robbed the Heat of any chance at max cap space. The realistic number, as above, is around $20 million in space. They have a few minor paths for increasing that number. Trading Okpala could net them almost $1 million in space. They could intentionally limit Kendrick Nunn's minutes so that he doesn't reach the starter criteria for a restricted free agent, therefore lowering his cap hold by around $2.6 million (a deeper explanation of which can be found here). Still, even the most aggressive Heat projections top out at below $25 million in space. 

This is the Heat we're talking about here. If a player like Kawhi tells them he wants to come to South Beach, they'll concoct a sign-and-trade scenario to make it happen. But for now, let's operate as if the Heat have two feasible paths next summer. They could pick up their team options on Goran Dragic, Andre Iguodala, Meyers Leonard and Avery Bradley and effectively run it back with their 2021 roster, or they could let those veterans walk and use that cap space to reload around their younger players. 

For months, Victor Oladipo was a rumored Heat target alongside Giannis. Depending on how his bounce-back year in Indiana goes, the Heat might be able to snag him at a sub-max price next summer. What about a reunion with Josh Richardson? Dallas has the inside track, thanks to its Bird rights, but he played his best basketball with the Heat. They might not have access to a superstar in free agency, but could add a long-term difference-maker whose age more closely aligns with the rest of their roster. This is going to be Miami's last chance to do so on the open market. With new contracts for Robinson and Nunn presumably kicking in next season, the Heat won't have cap space for the foreseeable future.

The Butler trade proved that they don't need it. That's the argument for functioning as an above-the-cap team. If the Heat pick up their team options on Dragic, Leonard, Iguodala and Bradley, they'll not only retain four potentially valuable veteran players, but four hefty contracts that can be used as matching salary in a trade. Say, for instance, that Beal becomes available. The Heat could offer Herro along with their army of expiring contracts, and then use the mid-level exception to replace whatever is lost. Free agents tend to take discounts to play for the Heat. Is $20 million in space that much more valuable than a $10 million mid-level exception?

The probable answer is no. Toronto almost has to use its cap space to take a home run swing because it lacks star upside. The Heat don't. If they want to splurge on a $20 million fourth starter, they could, but patience is a more viable option for Miami because the Heat just proved their existing roster is perfectly capable of reaching the Finals. They can afford to be pickier and wait for the right opportunity. 

Of course, that opportunity might already be staring them in the face. The Raptors are a fantasy James Harden destination. The Heat are a realistic one. Harden has reportedly already added them to his wish list, and a package centered around Herro and Robinson is feasible. For all we know, they've held off because they viewed Giannis as the greater prize. Now that he's gone? A full-court press for Harden might be their next move. 

Dallas Mavericks

Kristaps Porzingis	$31,650,600
Josh Richardson*	$16,298,928
Dwight Powell	$11,080,125
Luka Doncic	$10,174,391
Maxi Kleber	$8,825,000
Dorian Finney-Smith	$4,000,000
Trey Burke	$3,150,000
Josh Green	$2,957,520
Wes Iwundu	$1,824,003
Jalen Brunson**	$1,802,057
Tyrell Terry	$1,517,981
Incomplete roster charges (1)	$925,258
Total	$94,205,863
Projected cap space	$18,208,337

*cap hold
**non-guaranteed

The Mavericks aren't like the Heat or the Raptors. They don't have the cap holds or options to seriously consider remaining above the cap. They don't have the assets to try to trade for a superstar early, either. Dallas has one bullet to fire. It has 2021 cap space that evaporates the moment Luka Doncic's max extension kicks in for the 2022-23 season. The Mavs are going to spend next offseason. It's just a matter of how much. 

They will enter the offseason with something like $18 million in cap space, but that's an easy number to double if necessary. Dallas would probably prefer to keep Richardson, but his player option was one of the perks of acquiring him. If he opts out and leaves, the Mavericks have essentially created a max slot. If he wants to stay, he can still opt out, but remain on the books at that relatively low $16.3 million cap hold. Watch out for a Dwight Powell trade as well. Willie Cauley-Stein has a $4.1 million option for the 2021-22 season and functions in very similar ways. If the cheaper player is better than the expensive player, then dumping the expensive player for extra space is usually prudent. 

The catch to this space is that the Mavericks don't exactly have needs. The roster above has 11 players, most of which are either already competent NBA veterans filling a specific role or recent draft picks on the upswing. Sure, there are broad weaknesses that can be addressed. Dallas still needs to get better on defense. Rudy Gobert would make most defenses better. But why give the max to a rim protector when Porzingis is already in place? Giannis checked a few specific boxes for Dallas: defensive mobility, transition scoring, a second star-level shot-creator. There isn't another player in all of basketball who does what he can. Even if there was, the Mavericks wouldn't have access to him. The 2021 forward crop beyond Kawhi is fairly weak. Justise Winslow is the closest thing to a fit that could conceivably be available, but Memphis isn't going to decline his team-option. P.J Tucker is too old to get long-term money from a team whose best player is currently 21. 

That probably pushes the Mavericks toward guards, and even if Richardson is retained, that might not be the worst thing. Finney-Smith and Kleber are so versatile defensively that adding another of this class' two-way guards, like Oladipo or Jrue Holiday, would essentially give Dallas the freedom to hide Luka defensively in any lineup variation. They could use another high-level shot-creator as well, though Richardson ideally fits that bill. Rick Carlisle would never say no to some extra shooting. 

Dallas has another season to evaluate its roster. The Mavericks might feel differently about their long-term needs in 2021 than they do now, so pegging specific targets beyond the obvious All-Stars is essentially guesswork. Fortunately, the Mavericks are playing with house money here. They have the golden goose in Luka, and they have an already completed roster around him. That gives them the freedom to seek out luxuries and emphasize talent over fit. As long as Luka is there, they'll figure it out. 

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