Despite falling to 5-10 on the year, UK head coach John Calipari told reporters following Kentucky’s 70-59 loss at Alabama Tuesday evening that a path to the NCAA Tournament was still on the table for the Wildcats, even without the SEC Tournament.
“Yeah it is (too early to worry) because we got all kinds of games left. We’re going to have six or seven ranked teams,” Calipari said. “What happens if Terrence (Clarke) comes back and all the sudden we’re a different team? My belief is let’s just put ourselves in a better position.”
Just three days later, Kentucky had its game against No. 5 Texas in the Big 12/SEC Challenge scheduled for Saturday evening canceled due to a combination of positive testing, contact tracing and subsequent quarantining of individuals within the program. The team is now on a 48-hour pause, with next week’s games at No. 12 Missouri and vs. No. 18 Tennessee officially up in the air.
While the SEC is determined to reschedule any conference games postponed due to COVID-19, the non-conference schedule is no longer a priority. Canceled means canceled, dropping Kentucky’s total number of regular season games down to 24 on the year, 25 if the team’s postponed game against South Carolina is rescheduled.
Calipari’s “all kinds of games left” statement simply wasn’t true at the time, and it’s even further off-base now. With a maximum of just ten games remaining on the schedule, the math just isn’t adding up on a run to the NCAA Tournament without the help of an SEC title run in Nashville, especially when you factor in the team’s current inability to rattle off consecutive wins and build momentum.
UK’s tournament odds were slim going into the Texas matchup. Now, it’s going to take some serious magic to even have a shot.
What does that magic look like? Let’s look at the scenarios.
Regular Season
As I broke down last week leading up to Kentucky’s trip to Georgia, UK’s magic number has been roughly 15 wins to close out the regular season, a steep task before the Wildcats fell to Georgia and Alabama in two of the team’s last three games. Why 15?
No team over the last 11 years – the entirety of Calipari’s tenure at UK – has earned an at-large bid with a worse winning percentage than .558. Those teams – Florida (2019), Alabama (2018), Vanderbilt (2017) – each finished with final records of 19-15.
While those win totals aren’t possible for UK right now (and hopefully they don’t reach those loss totals, either), the Wildcats needed to finish the regular season around 15-11 overall to sit above that .558 bare minimum mark just to have a chance. Now that the total number of games has dropped to 25 on the year, here are the updated winning percentages both above and below that minimum threshold:
- 15 wins, 10 losses = .600
- 14 wins, 11 losses = .560
- 13 wins, 12 losses = .520
- 12 wins, 13 losses = .480
That takes us to part one of postseason play.
SEC Tournament
Kentucky’s margin for error is clearly small, and the odds are unlikely as it stands. But should the Wildcats go on a roll to close out the regular season and still find themselves in contention for an at-large bid, here’s where things stand to get to that .558 minimum winning percentage.
With 15 wins, 10 losses…
- One loss (15-11) = .578
With 14 wins, 11 losses…
- One loss (14-12) = .538
- One win, one loss (15-12) = .556
- Two wins, one loss (16-12) = .571
With 13 wins, 12 losses…
- One loss (13-13) = .500
- One win, one loss (14-13) = .519
- Two wins, one loss (15-13) = .536
- Three wins, one loss (16-13) = .552
- Four wins, one loss (17-13) = .567
With 12 wins, 13 losses…
- One loss (12-14) = .462
- One win, one loss (13-14) = .481
- Two wins, one loss (14-14) = .500
- Three wins, one loss (15-14) = .517
- Four wins, one loss (16-14) = .553
In a typical SEC Tournament bracket, the maximum number of wins the lowest-rated seed can win without winning the title is four, as the fifth game is the championship. Winning five games secures the SEC title, thus giving the team an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.
In short, 13 or more regular season losses means SEC Tournament title or bust.
Was Calipari wrong by saying Kentucky isn’t relying on an SEC title to make the NCAA Tournament? Not technically. But looking at recent history with at-large bids, it’s a razor-thin margin of error for Kentucky this point forward. It may be so razor-thin that winning ten straight to close out the regular season may be the only way to feel comfortable about securing a bid.
Calipari has pulled plenty of rabbits out of his hat throughout his time in Lexington, but he’s going to need to pull off his biggest trick yet to lead this team to the Big Dance.
"now" - Google News
January 31, 2021 at 08:30AM
https://ift.tt/3rabfHj
Despite Calipari's optimism, Kentucky's NCAA Tournament chances are now slim to none - kentuckysportsradio.com
"now" - Google News
https://ift.tt/35sfxPY
Bagikan Berita Ini
0 Response to "Despite Calipari's optimism, Kentucky's NCAA Tournament chances are now slim to none - kentuckysportsradio.com"
Post a Comment