WASHINGTON — For decades, Republicans have galvanized voters around reshaping the Supreme Court and benefited from it at the ballot box. But in a stark reversal, polls indicate it is Democrats who have the edge in 2020.
National and battleground state surveys taken before the death Friday of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg showed that voters trust Joe Biden more than President Donald Trump to pick a Supreme Court nominee, and that Democrats rate the high court as more important to their vote than Republicans do.
A Fox News poll taken this month found that likely voters trust Biden over Trump, by a margin of 52 percent to 45 percent, on nominating the next Supreme Court justice.
A Marquette Law national poll finished three days before Ginsburg’s death found 59 percent of Biden voters rated the Supreme Court as "very important" to their vote; 51 percent of Trump voters said the same. Among Democrats, 56 percent said the next Supreme Court appointment was "very important," higher than the 48 percent of Republicans who said the same.
In 2016, voters who rated the Supreme Court as "the most important factor" in their 2016 vote favored Trump over Clinton by a margin of 56 percent to 41 percent, according to NBC News exit polls.
The new findings point to a dilemma for Trump and Republicans as they plow ahead with plans to replace Ginsburg with a conservative jurist before the election, and after refusing to allow President Barack Obama to fill a vacancy in 2016. In a political environment where Democrats are energized over the Court, rejecting the dying wish of the leader of the court's liberal wing risks a voter backlash.
"There's so much at stake: The right to health care, clean air, clean water, environment, equal pay for equal work, the rights of voters, immigrants, women, workers," Biden said in a Sunday speech in Philadelphia focused on the Supreme Court. "And right now, our country faces a choice — a choice abut whether we come back from the brink."
And he faulted Trump for supporting a lawsuit before the Court to overturn Obamacare: "Millions of Americans are voting because they know their health care hangs in the balance."
His remarks signal a new attitude for Democrats, who for decades have been shy about connecting elections and Supreme Court nominees chosen by the two parties to different policy outcomes.
“For reasons I have never understood, Republicans for years have taken judicial nominations much more seriously than Democrats,” said Jim Manley, a lobbyist and former spokesman for Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid. “We have utterly failed as a party to take the threat posed by the Republican take over the judiciary seriously.”
'A clear choice on the future of the Supreme Court'
Republicans have been more aggressive at connecting those dots, equating GOP victories at the ballot box with stronger gun rights, the undoing of abortion rights and other issues that animate their base.
At a rally Saturday in Fayetteville, North Carolina, Trump promised to pick a woman to replace Ginsburg before the end of his first term, again claiming "there’ll be no God, there’ll be no guns" if Biden wins.
"The Supreme Court was a very central issue in both the 2016 presidential election and then the 2018 midterm elections," Trump said. "I am holding up your Second Amendment."
The dynamic can yet change. Republicans hope their voters will be ignited by a new Supreme Court pick who solidifies a 6-3 conservative majority, as they were by the ugly confirmation fight of Justice Brett Kavanaugh in 2018.
Democrats have limited options to stop Republicans, who hold 53 Senate votes and don't need bipartisan support to replace Ginsburg. One Democratic aide familiar with the process said he feared his party would be out-gunned by the right on infrastructure to shape public opinion during the battle.
A CNN poll last month found that 79 percent of Democratic registered voters rate the Supreme Court has "extremely" or "very" important to their 2020 vote, compared to 71 percent of Republicans who said the same.
And recent New York Times-Siena battleground state polls found that Biden is more trusted than Trump to choose a Supreme Court justice among likely voters in Arizona (53 percent to 43 percent), Maine (59 percent to 37 percent) and North Carolina (47 percent to 44 percent)
GOP senators facing tough re-election battles have varying strategies to navigate the issue.
Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine has publicly announced her opposition to voting on a Supreme Court nominee due to “the proximity of the presidential election,” saying instead that the winner of the contest should pick the next justice.
Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C. came out for Trump's nominee before one was named and sought to mobilize conservative voters around the Court.
"There is a clear choice on the future of the Supreme Court between the well-qualified and conservative jurist President Trump will nominate and I will support, and the liberal activist Joe Biden will nominate and Cal Cunningham will support, who will legislate radical, left-wing policies from the bench," Tillis said Saturday.
Sen. Martha McSally, R-Ariz., who trails Democrat Mark Kelly and is hoping to shake up her race, said less than two hours after Ginsburg's death was announced: "This U.S. Senate should vote on President Trump's next nominee for the U.S. Supreme Court."
And Sen. Cory Gardner, R-Colo., declined to say Saturday if Republicans should replace Ginsburg this year, saying the country needs "time for personal reflection" before "the politics begin.
In his speech Sunday, Biden addressed those fence-sitting senators.
"To jam this nomination through the Senate is just an exercise in raw political power," he said. "And I don't believe the people of this nation will stand for it."
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September 21, 2020 at 01:53AM
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Republicans are usually more fired up over SCOTUS. Now, polls say Democrats are. - NBC News
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