If Michael Kopech isn't in the White Sox rotation now, then when? - Sox Machine

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Dylan Cease opened the White Sox’s sweep of the Texas Rangers with an effort that didn’t really contribute to the cause. He gave up two runs over 3⅓ innings on Friday, but like many of his outings, it could’ve been worse. He allowed three hits, one of them a homer. He walked three batters. He threw just 45 of 80 pitches for strikes. He left too much work for the bullpen, which barely got the job done.

Two days later, Michael Kopech started on short notice and completed five innings, a feat Cease has yet to accomplish in 2021. He struck out 10 batters, something Cease has only accomplished once in his career, and Kopech only needed the first four innings for that part.

If I were Cease, I’d probably be pretty annoyed, because they’re theoretically working with the same tools. They hit high-90s with their fastballs, with the slider as a considerable secondary pitch.Then again, you could let me borrow Carl Skanberg’s pen and ink set, and only one of us is going to create something you want to see.

That overstates the talent discrepancy between Cease and Kopech, which can basically be boiled down to fastball movement. You might say command trumps all, but Cease’s struggle with desired fastball spin feeds into the issue of locating it, because he has to be more careful.

Here’s Dylan Cease throwing a well-located fastball to Isiah Kiner-Falefa in the first inning on Friday at 97 mph, which Kiner-Falefa reversed into center field at 100 mph.

Here’s Kopech firing a slower fastball to Kiner-Falefa in a worse location. Kiner-Falefa can only foul it back.

OK, but that’s an 0-2 count, and Kiner-Falefa might’ve been protecting against Kopech’s slider. What about when a hitter is looking for the fastball and and ready to pounce? Well, here’s Adolis García sitting fastball on the first pitch of his fourth inning at-bat.

Cease’s fastball has the most of these three pitches, believe it or not. In fact, if you compare the Statcast dashboards of Kopech and Cease with regards to spin and velocity, you’d have a helluva time telling them apart.

Cease is on the right, in case you were wondering.

Kopech’s fastball seems to give no ground vertically, with a little bit of armside run. Cease’s fastball isn’t as reliable in its action. His spin efficiency is better than it was last year, but it fluctuates on him. This one features some of that annoying cut, causing it to sag just the slightest amount as it approaches the plate. It doesn’t seem like it should make that big a difference, but it’s a hitch that doesn’t pair well with his shorter extension.

There might be no difference when it comes to spin or velocity, but there’s a big gap when talking about effective velocity.

Pitcher	Batter	Spin	Ext	Velo	EV	Diff
Cease	Kiner-Falefa	2714	5.8	96.5	95.7	-0.8
Kopech	Kiner-Falefa	2484	6.4	94.9	95.3	0.4
Kopech	García	2484	6.7	94.3	94.7	0,4

It’s frustrating that such a small thing can make a difference, but it’s also pretty cool, because it’s something that old-school fans and sabermetrically oriented fans can detect in their own ways. Hawk Harrelson often discussed velocity in terms of feet rather than miles per hour, and this is what he was getting at. The turgidity of Kopech’s fastball takes away one to two feet of reaction time compared to Cease, and that’s the biggest factor in the chasm between their performances. Stack up their stats and tell me which one’s the starter:

Pitcher	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K
Pitcher A	15.2	7	3	3	1	4	27
Pitcher B	17.1	18	8	8	2	12	20

* * * * * * * * *

Kopech and Cease aren’t on the same throwing days, but with an off day today, Lucas Giolito starting on Tuesday with extra rest and Lance Lynn expected to return from the injured list this week, Tony La Russa could shuffle the rotation to seamlessly swap starters. Were the Sox knee-deep in a pennant race, it would’ve been done already.

La Russa isn’t quite willing to go there with his words ….

“This is definitely not the time to think about moving Michael into the rotation,” La Russa said. “He needs to be one of those guys we rely on in the second half of the game. It’s all to the good — his good and our good.” […]

“Michael Kopech is going to be a starting pitcher, a top-line starting pitcher, but right now it made sense to get him in condition and add more and more pitches,” La Russa said. “I don’t have a crystal ball. He could pitch in the bullpen all year long. It’s exciting to see he could do both for us.”

… but his actions are leaving the door open. On purpose or by circumstance, the Sox have let Kopech use this month like another edition of spring training:

• April 11: 2⅓ IP, 26 pitches
• April 15: 1⅓ IP, 33 pitches
• April 18: 3+ IP, 41 pitches
• April 25: 5 IP, 87 pitches

So he’s pretty much on the doorstep of the rotation.

The problem — and it’s a good problem — is that he’s also proven to be a tremendous weapon in the bullpen, especially when he can handle the work of multiple relievers in a winnable game multiple times a week. You might look at the rotation and cringe at Cease’s turn, but La Russa’s doing a lot more shuddering when it comes to his relievers. The rotation spot is just a lot easier to compartmentalize with its fixed turns and workloads.

La Russa has managed Kopech into a enviable position where both courses are valid, but if Kopech’s working on a vague innings limit, then a move to the rotation is probably premature. A Kopech who made every turn in the rotation the rest of the way would be on track to eclipse 160 innings, and that might make the Sox a little bit nervous, especially since they don’t have another sort of problem-solver behind him.

If the Sox are able to delay Kopech’s ascendance to the rotation while keeping him involved for leveraged midgame deployments, they can tamp down his workload to a more comfortable level.

Here’s an attempt to establish a sliding scale. Kopech’s already thrown 15⅔ innings, and if he were to jump into the rotation now, he’d have 28 starts remaining. Give him an average of 5⅓ innings over those 28 starts — which is the rough expectation of a full-season starter to meet the minimum for ERA title consideration — and he ends up at 165 innings.

For every cycle through the rotation where Kopech isn’t involved, let’s pretend he threw three innings of relief instead — a two-inning outing and a one-inning outing over the course of five to six days. You’re taking his current workload, adding 5.33 innings per start he makes, and 3 innings for every start he doesn’t.

Here’s what that sliding scale looks like:

• 28 starts left: ~165 innings
• 23 starts left: ~153 innings
• 20 starts left: ~145 innings
• 15 starts left: ~133 innings
• 12 starts left: ~127 innings

The top one is the present-day situation, and the bottom line is if the Sox were able to hold off until the All-Star break.

Obviously there are ways to massage Kopech’s innings total to avoid overuse even if he entered the rotation sooner rather than later. He can skip a start, or have multiple starts delayed via rotation reshuffling. But while Cease is adding to the stress of the bullpen now, trying to manage Kopech over the majority of the season as a starter before he’s really needed reduces the amount of time or days the other starters can miss, and that can hurt as much as it helps. The White Sox have considered Jonathan Stiever the next best option so far this season, and the initial results say he’s nowhere near ready.

My guess is that an inconsistent Cease alone is not the crisis that will prompt the White Sox to move Kopech to the rotation at least at this point, especially if the other four starters are clearly better. Kopech may always be a superior option, but the idea is that Cease improves to a five-inning guy, and that’ll be good enough to relegate Kopech to sixth-starter status for deployment when an emergency truly arises, with valuable relief innings an excellent consolation prize. Reliable fifth starters are a luxury, while high-leverage guys are a necessity.

Here’s hoping guys like Aaron Bummer, Codi Heuer and Evan Marshall shake off their rough starts to take care of the later innings and the latter label. Should they perform as expected, then it’s time to keep an eye on Cease, because if his May looks like his April, then he’s hard to call him a starter of any kind, even if he’s the guy pitching the first inning.

(Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)

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If Michael Kopech isn't in the White Sox rotation now, then when? - Sox Machine
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