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BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - Hurricane Ida is starting to get the look, size, and power of a destructive storm with winds at category two strength, over 100 mph. It’s still expected to make landfall as a major, category four hurricane with peak winds between 130 and 140 mph.
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Since the track hasn’t changed much in the past 24 hours, the target landfall is still in the vicinity of Morgan City late Sunday afternoon into early evening. The effects from the storm will be most pronounced overnight Sunday through Monday morning. The main threats still include damaging winds, flooding, storm surge, and even a few isolated tornadoes possible.
The worst of the storm surge will be on the immediate coastline, between Morgan City and Grand Isle, with the surge potential is high as 10 to 15 feet. As you move west of the center circulation, the surge decreases to three to six feet. As for the winds, even though the hurricane will make landfall at category four speeds, remember, in the Baton Rouge area, we won’t experience that, however, we could see peak wind gust as high as 100 mph early Monday morning.
The other threat, widespread flooding, will be possible in those low-lying areas that are prone to flooding. We are expecting rain amounts to be as high as 10 to 15 inches, with isolated heavier amounts possible. Stay tuned and stay safe.
10 P.M. UPDATE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 88.0 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion should continue through late Sunday or early Monday, followed by a slower northward motion on Monday. A northeastward turn is forecast by Monday night.
On the forecast track, the center of Ida will continue moving across the central and northern Gulf of Mexico tonight and early Sunday, and make landfall along the coast of Louisiana within the hurricane warning area Sunday afternoon or evening. Ida is then forecast to move well inland over portions of Louisiana and western Mississippi on Monday and Monday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 18 hours and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it makes landfall along the Louisiana coast on Sunday. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 964 mb (28.47 inches).
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Timing
Good rain chances are in the forecast today, but today’s rains aren’t really directly related to Ida. But keep those rain chances in mind if you have any outdoor preparations that need to be completed. In general, the sooner you can get things done the better.
Weather will gradually go downhill on Sunday as Ida approaches. Tropical storm force winds are expected to arrive on the coast by Sunday morning and gradually spread inland through the day. The worst of the impacts for metro Baton Rouge will likely occur from Sunday night into Monday morning.
Wind Impacts
Tropical storm force winds are a near-certainty for just about all of SE Louisiana and SW Mississippi. Sustained hurricane force winds are likely along the coast and could extend as far inland as the I-10/I-12 corridor. The National Hurricane Center places odds of sustained hurricane force winds in Baton Rouge at ~50% as of the 10 a.m. Saturday advisory. Wind gusts well over 100 mph should be expected in our coastal parishes and could result in catastrophic damage, especially near the core of the storm. Wind gusts to near 100 mph in metro Baton Rouge cannot be ruled out. Extended power outages are likely for much of our area.
Rain Impacts
NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) continues to show widespread 5″-15″ rains impacting our area, with locally higher amounts possible. WPC has also placed areas from metro Baton Rouge through New Orleans to the coast under a 4/4 (high risk) of flooding from Sunday into Monday morning. These high risk days are most dangerous historically when it comes to flooding.
River Flooding
Unfortunately, we don’t have river forecasts yet from the National Weather Service River Forecast Center that include the anticipated rainfall from Ida. Those will likely be released at some point today though. Suffice to say that river flooding is a significant concern and it will be exacerbated along the lower reaches of the Amite, Tickfaw, and Tangipahoa rivers by the expected storm surge.
Storm Surge
The National Hurricane Center continues to forecast peak storm surge values of 10-15 feet from Morgan City to the mouth of the Mississippi River. From the mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS, 7-11 feet is forecast. The outlook also shows 4-7 feet into Lake Pontchartrain, with 3-5 feet into Lake Maurepas.
Severe Weather
The Storm Prediction Center has a level 2/5 (slight) risk of severe weather posted for the majority of our area from Sunday into Monday morning. This is primarily in place to cover the risk of tornadoes often experienced with landfalling tropical systems. Keep in mind that tornadoes can often occur in rainbands well removed from the center.
Summary/Key Points
Hurricane Ida is shaping up to potentially be the most significant hurricane impact to SE Louisiana since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. That is not to say the storms should be compared, but understand the magnitude of impacts could very well exceed those of what many of us experienced with Gustav in 2008.
Today is the final opportunity to finish your hurricane preparations. All of us should have them done by tonight and be wherever we plan to be for the duration of the storm. In general, evacuation is recommended largely for those threatened by rising water, but it’s ultimately a personal decision and comes down to your comfort level of dealing with the potential impacts. Those in mobile homes or other less sturdy structures should strongly consider going elsewhere until the storm passes.
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Stay with WAFB and the First Alert Storm Team for continuing updates through the day.
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August 28, 2021 at 10:18PM
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Hurricane Ida Intensifies, now a Cat. 2 - soon to be Cat. 4 - WAFB
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