Tropical Storm Nicholas forms in the Gulf; hurricane watch now in effect for Texas - AL.com

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There is a new tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico: Nicholas.

The National Hurricane Center on Sunday started issuing advisories on the 14th named storm so far this season, which could hit the Texas coast in a few days, bringing heavy rain, storm surge and flooding concerns.

The hurricane center has also added a hurricane watch to the tropical storm and surge warnings already in effect for the Texas coast, where 15 inches of rain will be possible as well as a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet.

Nicholas could be near hurricane strength as it nears landfall, forecasters said Sunday.

“Although not explicitly shown in the intensity forecast, Nicholas could approach hurricane strength when it nears the northwest Gulf coast, especially if it moves to the right of the NHC forecast track and spends more time over water,” the hurricane center said. “Due to this uncertainty a Hurricane Watch has been issued a for a portion of the Texas coast.”

Nicholas wasn’t moving much as of Sunday evening but was expected to resume a north-northwestward motion at about 12 mph later tonight, the hurricane center said.

The latest track map shows Nicholas hugging the western Gulf Coast before making landfall in Texas on Monday or early Tuesday.

As of 7 p.m. CDT Sunday, Tropical Storm Nicholas was located about 260 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande River and was crawling northward at 2 mph.

Nicholas had sustained winds of 40 mph, according to the hurricane center, making it a minimal tropical storm.

However, the hurricane center expects Nicholas to strengthen, and it will be moving over very warm Gulf waters. Forecasters said one limiting factor could be wind shear in the area.

“On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will pass near or just offshore of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and South Texas on Monday, and move onshore along the coast of south or central Texas coast Monday night or early Tuesday,” forecasters said.

Here are the watches and warnings as of Sunday afternoon:

* A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass, Texas, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay and Matagorda Bay.

* A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Port Aransas to Sargent, Texas.

* A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the mouth of the Rio Grande to Freeport, Texas, and from Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border.

* A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from the mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island, Texas.

* A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from north of Port Aransas to High Island, Texas.

Nicholas is already raising big concerns about heavy rain and flash flooding for parts of Texas and Louisiana.

NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center is expecting a ton of rain for parts of Texas and Louisiana over the next week. The potential for heavy rain could spread eastward toward Alabama later this week depending on the track of the storm. Here’s the seven-day precipitation outlook:

Parts of Texas and Louisiana could see up to 15 inches of rain over the next week from Tropical Storm Nicholas. This is the precipitation potential for the next seven days.

The hurricane center is now expecting Nicholas to dump more rain on Texas and Louisiana. The new forecast says 8 to 16 inches of rain will be possible, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, from today through the middle of the week.

Nicholas could also produce a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet along the Texas coast. That’s also an increase from the 2 to 4 feet initially forecast.

ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC

In addition to Nicholas there are three other potential trouble spots in the Atlantic as of Sunday night.

The hurricane center is also tracking three other systems that have the potential for development.

The only one close to the U.S. hasn’t even formed yet but has a medium chance (50 percent) of becoming a tropical depression later this week.

The hurricane center said an area of low pressure is expected to form near the Bahamas, or several hundred miles southeast of the Carolinas. It is forecast to track to the northwest this week.

The other two waves were all the way across the Atlantic.

One isn’t even over water yet.

It will move into the eastern Atlantic on Monday and could become a depression later this week while it heads to the west. That one will need to be watched by those in the Caribbean.

The other system getting attention was in the northeastern Atlantic a few hundred miles east of the Azores. The hurricane center said significant development of this wave now appears unlikely before it moves inland over Portugal later this week.

It has a 10 percent chance of becoming a depression in the next five days, down from 20 percent earlier today.

Sept. 10 marked the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, so this much activity isn’t all that unexpected.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on Nov. 30.

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Tropical Storm Nicholas forms in the Gulf; hurricane watch now in effect for Texas - AL.com
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