A research group is now labelling Michigan at “active or imminent” risk for a coronavirus outbreak as COVID-19 cases begin to rise rapidly in the state.
The group of technologists, epidemiologists, health experts and public policy leaders at Covid Act Now are identifying each state’s risk level for the spread of COVID-19 -- which are worsening in most parts of the U.S.
On Thursday, Michigan’s risk level for a coronavirus outbreak increased from “high risk” to “active or imminent” risk. The state’s new risk level is largely due to an increased infection rate and rapid increase of daily new COVID-19 cases, according to the data.
“Michigan is either actively experiencing an outbreak or is at extreme risk. COVID cases are exponentially growing and/or Michigan’s COVID preparedness is significantly below international standards,” the researchers report.
They are using data from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services to calculate Positive Test Rate for most states. Michigan’s positive test rate is 6.4%, according to the researchers, with 25.7 daily new cases per 100,000 residents. The state of Michigan reported more than 50,000 COVID test results on Oct. 28 with an 8.6% positive rate.
View: Tracking Michigan COVID-19 testing data
Read more: Michigan COVID testing is up. But so is the positivity rate
Like most other states, Michigan’s risk for coronavirus spread has constantly shifted due to fluctuating rates of COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, contact tracing and more over the last several months.
On July 31, we reported that Michigan’s status had changed from being “at risk of an outbreak” to experiencing “slow disease growth.” The state initially moved to a higher risk level on July 8 as COVID-19 case numbers increased and contact tracing decreased across Michigan.
The state maintained its medium risk level until Oct. 8, when it again shifted in an undesirable direction.
Infection rate
As of Friday, data shows that Michigan currently has an infection rate of 1.23 -- meaning each person infected with COVID-19 is infecting 1.23 other people. The state’s infection rate had improved throughout August after increasing in July, but began to increase again throughout September. In early October, the infection rate was 1.12 in Michigan.
Michigan had an infection rate of 0.99 on August 26, 1.06 on July 31, 1.21 on July 19 and 1.14 on July 8. On Oct. 11 it was 1.12.
Covid Act Now considers an infection rate “critical” if it surpasses 1.4. Michigan’s current infection rate of 1.23 is considered “high,” and is contributing to the state’s worsened risk status for virus spread.
Daily new cases -- ‘critical’ number
Another factor contributing to Michigan’s high risk status is the number of new COVID-19 cases recorded each day per every 100,000 people.
On Friday, Covid Act Now reports that Michigan is recording 25.7 new COVID-19 cases each day per every 100,000 residents -- a number that the research group considers “critical.”
Any number higher than 1 is considered “medium” and anything above 10 is considered “high.” A state has reached “critical” standing if it reports more than 25 daily new cases per every 100,000 residents, according to the group.
On August 26, Michigan was reporting a medium rate of 7.1 new confirmed COVID-19 cases per day for every 100,000 residents -- an improvement from 7.3 on July 31. According to the data, Michigan’s rate of daily new cases peaked at 16.1 on April 7. The new October data is trending to double that peak.
The group’s data aligns with coronavirus case and death data reported by the state of Michigan.
Michigan is currently experiencing its largest spike in COVID-19 cases since the beginning of the pandemic. Thursday’s update represents 3,675 new cases and 41 additional deaths, including 22 from a Vital Records review. On Wednesday, the state reported 167,545 total cases and 7,257 deaths.
The update represents the highest single-day case total for Michigan since the start of the pandemic. Officials said statewide network connectivity issues delayed the data pull past the 10 a.m. cutoff, which resulted in some cases that would have normally been counted in Friday’s totals being included Thursday.
New COVID-19 cases and deaths continue to rise in Michigan. Testing has increased in recent weeks, with more than 40,000 diagnostic tests reported per day, but the positive rate has increased to around 5%. Hospitalizations have increased steadily for the last four weeks, including upticks in critical care and ventilator use.
Michigan’s 7-day moving average for daily cases was 2,356 on Wednesday, the highest it has ever been. The state’s fatality rate is 4.3%. The state also reports “active cases,” which were listed at 45,200 as of Wednesday, its highest mark on record. More than 114,000 have recovered in Michigan.
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October 30, 2020 at 08:18PM
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Michigan now at risk for ‘active or imminent' COVID outbreak, data shows - WDIV ClickOnDetroit
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