National dynamics have impacted Virginia’s gubernatorial contests, even though Virginia’s fundamental partisanship is clear.
With Democrat Barack Obama in the White House, Democrat Terry McAuliffe squeezed out a narrow 48 percent to 45 percent win over Republican Ken Cuccinelli in 2013. Four years later, with Republican Donald Trump in the White House, Democrat Ralph Northam defeated Republican Ed Gillespie by a much more comfortable 54 percent to 45 percent.
This year, GOP nominee Glenn Youngkin squeezed out a narrow 2-point victory over McAuliffe largely because of a strong Republican turnout (particularly in rural areas) and a weaker Democratic showing in the suburbs than Joe Biden’s performance a year earlier.
This year, McAuliffe won almost 2 out of every 3 voters in populous Fairfax County, but Biden won over 70 percent of them in 2020. More importantly, the total turnout in the county was down dramatically from 2020 to 2021, which means McAuliffe’s margin was down in the county.
McAuliffe drew 286,316 votes in Fairfax County compared to Youngkin’s 152,110 voters, for a Democratic margin of 134,206 votes. But a year earlier, Biden had carried Virginia’s largest county with 419,943 votes to Trump’s 168,401 votes, a massive margin of 251,542 votes for the Democrat.
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November 16, 2021 at 10:05PM
https://www.rollcall.com/2021/11/16/so-what-color-is-virginia-now/
So, what color is Virginia now? - Roll Call
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