We have reached the time of the NFL season when we watch the game in front of us with one eye and the scoreboard with the other. Sunday began with six of the NFL's 14 playoff spots filled. Nine other teams had a chance to clinch one of the eight remaining spots. (Some of their scenarios canceled out others. You know how it is: Math can be complicated.)
As it turned out, four teams clinched playoff spots in the early games, including two that claimed their division championships. The Bengals won the AFC North, and the Titans captured the AFC South. There were no such dramatic moments in the late afternoon games, but Sunday night's game at Lambeau Field could be noteworthy. With a win over the Vikings, the Packers can clinch the NFC's top seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. In that outcome, the Vikings would be eliminated and the Eagles would secure a spot in the playoffs.
We will update this story at the conclusion of Sunday Night Football. For now, here's what we know at this moment.
Note: All percentage chances to make the playoffs, clinch a division title or secure the conference No. 1 seed are via ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI).
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Clinching scenarios
AFC playoff standings
Chances to make playoffs: Clinched
Chances to win division: Clinched
Chances to earn No. 1 seed: 79%
Remaining schedule: at Texans
Chances to make playoffs: Clinched
Chances to win division: Clinched
Chances to earn No. 1 seed: 16%
Current projected first-round matchup: vs. Chargers
Remaining schedule: at Broncos
Chances to make playoffs: Clinched
Chances to win division: Clinched
Chances to earn No. 1 seed: 5%
Current projected first-round matchup: vs. Colts
Remaining schedule: at Browns
Chances to make playoffs: Clinched
Chances to win division: 94%
Chances to earn No. 1 seed: Eliminated
Current projected first-round matchup: vs. Patriots
Remaining schedule: vs. Jets
0:23
Devin Singletary rumbles past the goal line for a bruising rushing touchdown, extending the Bills' lead.
Chances to make playoffs: Clinched
Chances to win division: 6%
Chances to earn No. 1 seed: 1%
Current projected first-round matchup: at Bills
Remaining schedule: at Dolphins
Chances to make playoffs: 84%
Chances to win division: Eliminated
Chances to earn No. 1 seed: Eliminated
Current projected first-round matchup: at Bengals
Remaining schedule: at Jaguars
Chances to make playoffs: 58%
Chances to win division: Eliminated
Chances to earn No. 1 seed: Eliminated
Current projected first-round matchup: at Chiefs
Remaining schedule: at Raiders
In the AFC hunt
Las Vegas Raiders (9-7)
Chances to make playoffs: 52%
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7-1)
Chances to make playoffs: 4%
Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
Chances to make playoffs: 2%
NFC playoff standings
Chances to make playoffs: Clinched
Chances to win division: Clinched
Chances to earn No. 1 seed: 96%
Remaining schedule: vs. Vikings, at Lions
Chances to make playoffs: Clinched
Chances to win division: 75%
Chances to earn No. 1 seed: 3%
Current projected first-round matchup: vs. Eagles
Remaining schedule: vs. 49ers
Chances to make playoffs: Clinched
Chances to win division: Clinched
Chances to earn No. 1 seed: 1%
Current projected first-round matchup: vs. 49ers
Remaining schedule: vs. Panthers
0:20
Tom Brady connects with Cyril Grayson in the final minute of action to put the Buccaneers on top and defeat the Jets 28-24.
Chances to make playoffs: Clinched
Chances to win division: Clinched
Chances to earn No. 1 seed: Eliminated
Current projected first-round matchup: vs. Cardinals
Remaining schedule: at Eagles
Chances to make playoffs: Clinched
Chances to win division: 25%
Chances to earn No. 1 seed: Eliminated
Current projected first-round matchup: at Cowboys
Remaining schedule: vs. Seahawks
Chances to make playoffs: 65%
Chances to win division: Eliminated
Chances to earn No. 1 seed: Eliminated
Current projected first-round matchup: at Buccaneers
Remaining schedule: at Rams
Chances to make playoffs: 91%
Chances to win division: Eliminated
Chances to earn No. 1 seed: Eliminated
Current projected first-round matchup: at Rams
Remaining schedule: vs. Cowboys
In the NFC hunt
New Orleans Saints (8-8)
Chances to make playoffs: 38%
Minnesota Vikings (7-8)
Chances to make playoffs: 6%
Clinching scenarios and intriguing playoff races
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The Chiefs' loss to the Bengals means that the AFC's eventual No. 1 seed will have at least five defeats, tied for the most for the AFC's top team since the NFL began the seeding process in 1975. The most recent such team with five losses was the 2002 Raiders, who advanced to Super Bowl XXXVII.
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The Bengals won the AFC North for the first time since 2015, thanks to their 34-31 victory over the Chiefs. But will history remember that it took flags on two consecutive fourth-down plays at the goal line to keep the Bengals' winning drive alive? The Bengals can clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC in Week 18 with a win over the Browns and losses by the Titans, Chiefs and Patriots or a win and a Bills win plus losses by the Titans and Chiefs.
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The Titans clinched a playoff berth and the AFC South with a victory over the Dolphins. At some point, we need to take a step back and recognize what the Titans have done under coach Mike Vrabel. After making the playoffs once in the nine years before he arrived in 2018, they have now had four consecutive winning seasons, three consecutive trips to the playoffs and now two consecutive division titles. The Titans can clinch the top seed in Week 18 with (A) a win at Houston, (B) losses by the Chiefs, Bengals and Patriots or (C) losses by the Chiefs and Bengals combined with a win by the Bills.
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The Titans' win eliminated the Colts' chance to win AFC South. The Colts could have clinched a playoff spot with a victory over Las Vegas, but they lost 23-20. The Colts can clinch a playoff spot with (A) a win at the Jaguars, (B) losses by the Ravens, Chargers and Steelers (Week 17) or (C) losses by the Chargers and Steelers (Weeks 17 and 18) and a Dolphins win.
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The Bills clinched a playoff berth, thanks to their 29-15 victory over the Falcons along with the Ravens' loss to the Rams. That's three consecutive trips to the postseason for the Bills under coach Sean McDermott. They'll clinch the AFC East for the second consecutive year if they beat the Jets at home in Week 18.
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The Patriots clinched a playoff berth after beating the Jaguars 50-10 and getting a 34-3 loss from the Dolphins against the Titans. New England could still clinch the AFC East with a Week 18 victory at the Dolphins and a Bills loss. To clinch home-field advantage as the No. 1 seed, the Patriots would need a Week 18 win and losses by the Bills, Titans and Chiefs.
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The Chargers' win over the Broncos eliminated the Broncos, Dolphins and Browns from playoff contention. More importantly for the Chargers: It set up a win-and-in situation for their Week 18 game at the Raiders. That game also will be a win-and-in scenario for the Raiders, who have won three consecutive games to get back into the race. The Raiders also can get in with losses by the Colts and Steelers (in either Week 17 or 18).
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The Saints avoided playoff elimination by defeating the Panthers. They can clinch a playoff berth with a win at the Falcons combined with losses by the 49ers and Vikings in Week 18. New Orleans also could clinch with a win, an Eagles loss and Vikings victories in Weeks 17 and 18.
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The 49ers didn't clinch a playoff spot on Sunday, but they can do it in Week 18 with a win at the Rams or a loss by the Saints or a loss by the Eagles combined with a Saints victory as well as victories by the Vikings in Weeks 17 and 18.
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The Rams weren't able to clinch the NFC West on Sunday, thanks to the Cardinals' win, but Los Angeles can do it with a Week 18 win over the 49ers or a Cardinals loss. The Cardinals can clinch the NFC West with a win over the Seahawks and a Rams loss. But Arizona can't get to the No. 1 seed.
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The Eagles will be watching Sunday night's game closely. They'll clinch a playoff berth with a Packers win. If the Vikings win Sunday night, Philadelphia can still clinch with a victory in Week 18 or a Vikings loss in Week 18.
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Washington was eliminated from playoff contention. Given the Week 1 loss of starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and its late-season COVID-19 outbreak, it's frankly amazing that this team was still in the race in Week 17. The Falcons also were eliminated from playoff contention with their loss to the Bills. And as mentioned, the Broncos, Dolphins and Browns were eliminated in the AFC.
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Despite losing five consecutive games, the Ravens aren't out of it yet. To get into the playoffs, they will need to beat the Steelers in Week 18 and get losses by the Colts, Browns, Chargers and Dolphins.
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The Steelers can clinch a playoff berth by winning their final two games -- on Monday night against the Browns and in Week 18 at the Ravens -- and getting a loss by the Colts.
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NFL playoff picture 2021 - Week 17 standings, bracket, clinching scenarios, division races and postseason outlook - ESPN
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