By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst
It’s beginning to smell a lot like college football! Gamblers, get on your marks because preview magazines are out, conference media days are around the corner and kickoff will be here before we know it.
With the beginning of the season comes the emergence of betting on all the different markets college football has to offer. Today, I'm focusing on win totals.
Utah, USC and Ohio State are three teams whose win totals I'm feeling pretty confident about. Which teams will go under, and which teams will exceed the projected number of wins?
The only way to find out is to keep reading. Let's dive into my early win total bets that you should make right now — with odds via FOX Bet.
Utah — Over 8.5 wins: -118 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $18.47 total)
This one surprised me as we’ve seen Utah win at least nine games over their last three full seasons (throw out the COVID-19 year for every single discussion about this sport). Entering the 2022 season, Utah’s offense is the healthiest it has been in years. The team returns quarterback Cam Rising and running back Tavion Thomas. Rising will be in the Heisman conversation, even if only for a few whispers. And Thomas rushed for 1,109 yards on 204 carries last year, so expect him to have an impact again. The Utes did replace their two best linemen, but their scheme should allow them to continue rolling on offense.
Defensively, while the Utes must replace their two middle linebackers, this team returns almost everyone else from a top-tier unit. More importantly, Utah is bound to be the favorite in every game except one this season. Case in point, the Utes will be the Week 1 favorite against Florida by kickoff. Then let's look ahead to when Utah hosts USC on Oct. 15. No matter how ridiculous the opening line ends up being, the Utes will be the favorite by game time there as well.
If Utah stays healthy, they will win 10 games or more this season.
USC — Under 9.5 wins: +130 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $23 total)
USC will score a ton of points this season, but its opponents will also score a ton of points this season. If I could bet the over for every one of the team's games this season, I would do that now.
Transfers make up the bulk of the Trojans' roster — from quarterback to running back, wide receivers to nearly half of the starting defense. There are just so many unknowns at important positions for me to back this team.
Being an OL guy, the biggest question that comes to my mind is can USC block and tackle well enough to win 10 games? I’m not sure, which scares me. And how quickly can all the transfers gel, learn new schemes and play with confidence? I’m not sure about that either.
USC’s schedule isn’t tough, especially since the Trojans don't have to play conference rivals Oregon or Washington. But they do travel to Oregon State and Utah, two teams that humiliated them on their home turf in the Coliseum by rushing for a combined 502 yards. USC ends the season visiting UCLA, and remember, the Bruins put up 62 points in their meeting last season. And after UCLA, the Trojans host Notre Dame.
10 wins is too ambitious for Lincoln Riley’s squad in his first year as head coach. Give me the plus-money with the under.
RELATED: Ohio State would be double-digit favorite against Michigan
Ohio State — Over 10.5 wins: -200 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $15 total)
The margin of error for an over wager of 10.5 wins is slim. Ohio State can only afford to lose a single game for this bet to hit. But, the Buckeyes won 10 regular season games last year, in what some would consider a down season.
OSU's offense looked sluggish at times last season, but the unit also scored a million points. Defensively, they appeared out of sorts against Oregon and Michigan, but I see them improving on that front. A new defensive scheme that should create more looks and variety will help the Buckeyes' defense get after the passer and not allow so many yards.
On offense, they are guided by Heisman hopeful C.J. Stroud, who threw for 44 touchdowns and 4,435 yards last season while completing nearly 72% of his passes. Ohio State has tough road games at Michigan State and Penn State, but they get Notre Dame, Michigan and Wisconsin at home. Playing those tough opponents at home instead of on the road will work in the Buckeyes' favor.
Ohio State will win 11 games this season, thus cashing this ticket.
Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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